My Predictions For The Future of Uganda

Where I See Uganda In The Next 15-20 years.

In a phone conversation I was having with Dr. Alexander a British Venture Capitalist who is very interested in investing in promising African start ups and entrepreneurs (with keen interest in Uganda and East Africa. He has already invested in 3 Ugandan start ups and we are still looking for more so if you know any promising ones let me know), he asked me a question many foreign investors usually ask. Where do you see Uganda in the next ten years or so!? What's your prediction for the country economically, politically and socially!?

Surprisingly for the first time a Ugandan also asked me this question as I pitched Campus Doctor (if you want details contact me) a health care venture we are raising equity for through crowd funding. So where do I see Uganda in the next 10 to 20 years!?

For starters, Uganda is growing so fast (yes, our economy has slowed down of late and isn't growing at the rate it initially did but there is still growth) thanks to the influence from our surroundings (rest of the world). When the internet happened in 1996 it broke many boundaries, interconnecting the world and making it one big global village. This has led to our exposure to a diversity of global social, economical and political cultures and ways of  life. That said, I expect this to continue playing a big part in informing how we live life and do the thing we do going forward.

Ten years from now we shall see less and less application of human labour and more of automation. The country woke up to a sad news paper headline this week,  "Kakira Sugar works lays off 4,000 employees". In a country where unemployment is at an all time high loosing 4k jobs is so painful especially as we fight to see how to create more jobs to be able to bring down the stats. I don't want to sound sadist but I predict more and more jobs will be lost. As we embrace technology, its going to change the way we live entirely. Main stream media is slowly dying in the face of social media, robots and automation are replacing human labour, technology has changed the way we relate, associate and communicate. Mobile banking, ATMs mean less tellers needed. Apps like ubber have changed the face of taxi business as we once knew it and because of this many individual taxi operators we thrown out of business. Apps like whatsapp, Skype,imo have seen telecoms loose revenues from talk time and this has made them re-strategise with many loosing jobs in the leaning up process. Bottom line is many have lost jobs and many are still doing so as we embrace more technological advancements. So where does this leave you as a person!? It means you need to re strategize too in the face of this change or else you get left in the cold with no clothing to warm you.

I also predict a more cashless economy. We shall see less and less cash transactions as they will be replaced by digital financial transactions. Actually am surprised why the government is taking so long to take this path because truth is they will be the biggest beneficiaries of such a move. It would mean all financial transactions would then be traceable and trackable. How this would help in revenue collection. Yeah I see an economy where we will be using mobile money to pay for all the goods and services we consume right from our market and supper marketing shopping, to our bus and taxi fares name it. An economy where we use cards to pay, this will bring the banks back into business but only if they move fast. My only worry for the banks is their Fiat nature of operations, too  slow it works against them always especially in this 21st century where everything moves at lightening speed. They are for example now playing catch to mobile money in an industry that's supposed to be traditionally theirs. Why!?  They took to long to react.

So yes, we shall see more and more of digital financial transactions and less of cash going around. This will mean businesses will have to clean up and be more formal to make money and survive. If you started doing this now the changes will find you in a better position  to adapt.

I also see education as we know it being less appealing. Over commercialisation of the education  sector is going to be the death of it at some point. People will start questioning the value of what's being offered in the name of education. There are very many schools and universities cropping up of late.  It looks like every district now has a university yet graduands are walking out with less an less skills to be able to survive in this competitive world. In Germany for example the government is fighting to have kids go to university. Actually the government is paying them to do so but why must I go to the university if I can go to technical school, learn motor engineering and get employed by say Benz, Volkswagen or Golf the kids must be asking themselves. Why don't I go learn construction in a technical school and get employed in the booming construction industry in Germany and Europe. I see that happening here too soon. People will start asking questions. There will be an attempt to have all the works we are outsourcing to these Chinese construction companies done locally. I envisage more and more production and industrialisation with specifically more medium and mid sized industrial firms coming up. So as we go forward, education that has the ability to skill and make people ready for life outside school immediately is what will sell. In short, we shall go back to technical and practical schools.

All this will of course happen with a more sane minded political leadership in power which I believe we shall have in the next 10-15 years one way or the other. The world is moving and so will Uganda and that includes politically.

That's my prediction for what will be of Uganda in the next 10-20 years going by the trends both internal and external.

What is your prediction for this country in the next 10-20 years!?

Jaluum Herberts Luwizza is

writer,speaker and business consultant with YOUNG TREP East Africa's No Business Management and Consultancy firm that helps people start and grow profitable businesses.

twitter:@jaluwizza